Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 60.254290 70.393897 81.409069 94.225443 108.686976 124.458384 142.917047
2024-12-15 45.515705 59.293926 75.606810 96.172732 121.221053 150.542450 187.249488
2024-12-22 33.402815 47.651589 65.754008 90.081728 121.518301 160.338554 211.411886
2024-12-29 28.240068 43.372775 63.715060 92.454893 131.315435 181.269956 249.447499
2025-01-05 23.389767 38.512925 59.939543 91.625575 136.247793 195.678845 279.422158
2025-01-12 21.427340 37.380089 60.978120 97.184720 149.847201 221.963619 326.128616
2025-01-19 17.204087 32.093306 55.234858 92.248291 148.054338 226.845424 343.756376
2025-01-26 15.549057 30.623649 54.999648 95.286523 157.749896 248.035606 384.776957
2025-02-02 14.752075 30.454779 56.725343 101.368050 172.228342 276.671095 437.553212
2025-02-09 13.435779 29.158680 56.421321 104.108656 181.650962 298.242206 480.942599
2025-02-16 12.094441 27.603891 55.474677 105.636197 189.147314 317.159081 521.089904
2025-02-23 10.689811 25.704379 53.692528 105.541749 193.927323 332.035201 555.661652
2025-03-02 9.400569 23.996647 52.358319 106.626007 201.587181 353.127221 602.896898
2025-03-09 8.304669 22.528383 51.344984 108.280175 210.499689 376.995773 656.157005
2025-03-16 6.496844 19.094265 46.038872 101.505096 204.369295 376.259398 670.655112
2025-03-23 5.858727 18.244698 45.781176 104.122352 214.779623 402.973583 729.999393
2025-03-30 5.014448 16.693329 43.826628 103.205902 218.686651 418.933904 772.481478
2025-04-06 4.803890 16.749986 45.354811 109.343701 235.898619 458.208097 854.867995
2025-04-13 3.841931 14.514337 41.423736 103.893689 230.966841 459.034674 873.111094
2025-04-20 3.543126 14.115785 41.688765 107.248552 243.022174 490.045516 943.479301
2025-04-27 3.450993 14.329346 43.447655 113.958777 261.989270 534.094552 1037.701068
2025-05-04 3.173258 13.889910 43.534173 116.980583 273.807609 565.771383 1111.647364
2025-05-11 2.861976 13.260590 43.051167 118.664309 283.007551 593.041941 1178.839492